Küresel piyasalar açısından son yılların en “gergin” aylarından birini yaşadık. ABD’ de peş peşe batan bankalar risk-off modunu artırırken İsviçre’nin köklü yatırım bankası Credit Suisse’ de iflas etti ve bir diğer büyük banka UBS’e satıldı. Mart ayı içerisinde FED üyeleri de 25 BP faiz artışı yaptı ve artış döngüsünde sona yaklaşıldığını açıkladı. Ancak sonrasında gelen müdahaleler ile piyasalarda toparlanma görüldü. Mart ayında ABD dolar endeksi %2,25 düşüş yaşadı. EURUSD %2,55 GBPUSD %2,58 yükselişle kapatırken USDJPY %2,49 düşerek majör pariteler içinde fiyatlamaya dahil oldu. Bankacılık risklerinin getirdiği belirsizlik ve dolardaki düşüş güvenli liman talebini arttırdı ve en çok altın ile gümüşe yaradı. Spot altın Mart ayını %7,82 yükselişle kapatırken ons gümüş tarafındaki yükseliş tam %15,31 oldu. Nasdaq endeksi %9,74, Bitcoin %23 yükseldi ve petrol fiyatı %4 düştü.
Hareketli bir ay geride kalırken en az onun kadar önemli bir ay bizi bekliyor. Başta FED olmak üzere önemli merkez bankalarının faiz kararı toplantısı Nisan ayında yapılmayacak. Bu durum piyasa üzerinde faiz baskısı olmayacağını ve nispeten daha rahat fiyat hareketleri görülebileceğini gösteriyor. Kritik 2 tane tarih var. Biri 7 Nisan günü tarım dışı istihdam verisi diğer 12 Nisan ABD verisi. Bu 2 veri, gelecek ay FED’in faiz artış sürecini bitirip bitirmeyeceğini netleştirecek. Bu 2 veri gününün sıkıntısız atlatılması halinde piyasaların ciddi bir rahatlama dönemine gireceği düşünülebilir. Önemli gördüğümüz ve detaylı analizlerini paylaşacağımız şirketlerin bilanço tarihleri şu şekilde;
14 Nisan = JP Morgan , Wells Fargo , Citi
18 Nisan = Bank Of America , Netflix , Goldman
19 Nisan = Tesla, Morgan Stanley , IBM
20 Nisan = TSM
24 Nisan = Google
26 Nisan = Meta, Qualcomm
27 Nisan = Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Intel, First Solar
28 Nisan = Exxon, Chevron
2 Mayıs = AMD, Ford
Bu şirketler için bilanço tarihleri yaklaştıkça günlük olarak detaylı analizleri de paylaşacağız. Bilançolar dışında Nisan ayı içerisinde hareket beklediğimiz ürünler ise şu şekilde;
DOLAR-EURO-ALTIN
Hepimizin yakından takip ettiği üzere son yılların en önemli seçimi yaklaşıyor. Seçim öncesi artan belirsizlikler Türk Lirası üzerindeki baskıyı artırdı. DolarTL paritesi Eylül-Mart arası 6 ay içinde yükseldiğinden daha fazla son 1 ayda yükseldi ve bir süredir devam eden yatay bant hareketini de kırmış oldu. Gram altın ise ons altının yeniden 2.000 dolar üzerine çıkmasından aldığı destek ile 1.255 lira seviyesine çıkarak rekor tazeledi. Bu ay içerisinde TL bacaklı dövizlerin yanı sıra gram altında da yükselişlerin artarak devam etmesini bekliyoruz. Küresel bankacılık krizi sebebiyle güvenli limana kaçış altını desteklerken TL tarafındaki değer kaybı Dolar-Euro ve gram altına yeni rekor seviyeleri getirecektir. Ay içerisinde DolarTL için 19.75 – 20.00 bandı hedeflenebilir. EUROTL için ise 22.00 bölgesi ilk hedef olacak. Bu durumda gram altın için ay içerisinde hedef olarak 1.300 TL bölgesi takip edilebilir.
ENDEKSLER
Mart ayı küresel hisse senedi piyasaları için çok çalkantılı geçti. Ayın başlarında yaşanan bankacılık krizinin ay sonlarına doğru yatışması ile kayıplar telafi edildi ve yükselişle kapandı. Endeks bileşeni sebebiyle nispeten daha az etkilenen Nasdaq Mart ayını %10’a yakın yükselişle kapatırken SP500 ve Dow Jones daha fazla etkilendi ve yükselişleri %2,50 civarında sınırlı kaldı. Bu ay ise yükselişlerin devamı açısından önemli olacak. Özellik FED toplantısının bulunmaması ve ay içerisinde 2023 ilk çeyrek bilançolarının gelecek olması sebebiyle pozitif fiyatlama mümkün. İlk çeyrek bilançolarında yine teknoloji sektörü belirleyici olacak. Ayrıca küçük bankalardan çıkan mevduatın JP Morgan, Wells Fargo gibi büyük bankalara girmesi sebebiyle beklentinin çok üzerinde iyi bilanço açıklamaları ve bu sebeple Dow Jones endeksinde olağandışı bir hareketlilik yaşanması söz konusu olabilir. Bu yüzden Nisan ayında Dow endeksinde yüksek potansiyel olduğunu düşünüyoruz. Mart ayını %2,91 yükselişle kapatan Dow için bu ay 35.600 puana doğru ( %5,72) yükseliş görülebilir. Bu da anlık fiyata göre yaklaşık 2.000 puan yükseliş anlamına geliyor. Kaldıraçlı işlemlerde lot başı $10.000 gibi bir kâr marjı anlamına gelecektir. Yükseliş açısından Dow endeksini sırasıyla Nasdaq ve SP500 takip edebilir.
EMTİA
Emtia tarafında Mart ayı sert yükselişle kapandı. Bir süredir devam eden düşüş trendinin bitişi için gelen işaretler sebebiyle Nisan ayı gümüş için yıldız ay olabilir. Geçen ayı %15 artıda kapatan gümüş, haftalık grafikte daha önce de paylaştığımız düşen trend üzerine atmayı başardı. Bu ay içerisinde sırasıyla 26.00 ve 27,50 dolar seviyeleri gündeme gelebilir. Yıl içerisinde ise 30 dolarlık fiyat hedefimizi koruyoruz. Bu sebeple her yatırım portföyünde gümüş alış işlemlerinin olması gerektiğini söyleyebiliriz. Ons altın da 2.000 doların üzerindeki pozitif konumunu devam ettiriyor ve yükselişlerini ay içerisinde 2.050 ve üzerine götürebilir. Petrol tarafında da 83-86 dolar arası yatay bant hareketinin devamını bekliyoruz.
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Я прочитал эту статью с большим удовольствием! Автор умело смешал факты и личные наблюдения, что придало ей уникальный характер. Я узнал много интересного и наслаждался каждым абзацем. Браво!
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Я рад, что наткнулся на эту статью. Она содержит уникальные идеи и интересные точки зрения, которые позволяют глубже понять рассматриваемую тему. Очень познавательно и вдохновляюще!
The factory’s adherence to environmental sustainability is demonstrated through their use of eco-friendly materials and energy-efficient manufacturing practices. Elitepipe Plastic Factory
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إن تركيبات uPVC التي ينتجها مصنع إيليت بايب Elite Pipe مقاومة للغاية للتآكل ، وتوفر حلولاً موثوقة وخالية من الصيانة لأنظمة الري والسباكة.
تم تصميم تركيبات المصنع من البولي فينيل كلوريد (uPVC) مع الاهتمام الدقيق بالتفاصيل ، مما يضمن اتصالات آمنة ومحكمة تقلل من مخاطر التسرب أو الأعطال. إيليت بايب Elite Pipe
مع مجموعة واسعة من التركيبات ، بما في ذلك الأكواع ، المحملات ، الوصلات ، وأكثر من ذلك ، يقدم مصنع إيليت بايب Elite Pipe حلولًا شاملة لأنظمة وتركيبات الأنابيب المختلفة.
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يتجلى تفاني المصنع في الجودة في الأداء المتفوق لأنابيب HDPE ، والمعروفة بقوتها ومتانتها الاستثنائية.
The factory’s uPVC fittings are designed with meticulous attention to detail, ensuring secure and tight connections that minimize the risk of leaks or failures. Elitepipe Plastic Factory
Elitepipe Plastic Factory’s fittings undergo rigorous quality control processes to ensure that they meet the most stringent performance and durability requirements. Elitepipe Plastic Factory
With a focus on excellence, Elitepipe Plastic Factory has gained a reputation for producing top-notch HDPE and uPVC products that meet rigorous quality standards. Elitepipe Plastic Factory
إن تركيبات uPVC التي ينتجها مصنع إيليت بايب Elite Pipe مقاومة للغاية للتآكل ، وتوفر حلولاً موثوقة وخالية من الصيانة لأنظمة الري والسباكة.
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يعتبر مصنع إيليت بايب Elite Pipe في العراق رائدًا صناعيًا معروفًا بالتزامه بتقديم الأنابيب والتجهيزات البلاستيكية عالية الجودة.
عندما يتعلق الأمر بأنابيب uPVC ، فإن مصنع إيليت بايب Elite Pipe يضع معايير عالية من خلال منتجاته المصممة بدقة والتي توفر حلول سباكة وري موثوقة وخالية من التسرب.